Population Analysis Resources Review of US Census Bureau Evaluation Estimates: County Total Population Errors A Shiny interface from May 2022 to review U.S. Census Bureau Evaluation Estimates county total population errors. Note the Census Bureau's Decennial Programs and Population Estimates Program do have some shared resource access and uses. Associated GitHub repository. Italy Life Table Survivorship and Deaths Distribution Viewer A Shiny for R application from December 2021 to view and modify life table survivorship and deaths distributions for Italy from the Human Mortality Database. The associated About Mortality Data for Italy document, via the main page for Italy, gives important information about the data. R code for the application includes information on how to download the data using Carl Boe's HMD2R. Code and associated GitHub repository. A State and Local Population Projections Database An active, informal collection of population projection reports and materials that I started in April 2021. Differential Privacy Demonstration Data for California Viewer A Shiny interface from November 2019 to view an early release of the U.S. Census Bureau's 2010 Census Demonstration Data for Differential Privacy. Associated GitHub repository. ACS PUMS Migration Data Viewer for US States and California Counties A Shiny for R interface from September 2019 (updated January 2022) to view U.S. Census Bureau 2013 to 2017 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) migration data by age, sex, and Hispanic origin, for US states and California counties. The interface includes application of a Rogers-Castro migration model fitter that I developed, with summary information about the fit. The data were accessed via IPUMS-USA. More information, including R code for the application, is available in the associated GitHub repository. Net Migration Adjustment Comparison Interface A Shiny interface from September 2019 to view and compare different net migration adjustment methods, as applied to Alaska PFD-based migration data. Associated GitHub repository. Hamilton-Perry Projection with Components and Stable Population Information Interface A Shiny interface started in August 2019 to view cohort change ratio-based projections for California counties. More information, including formulas, a spreadsheet demonstration to replicate results, slides for a related talk (October 2020, at FSU CDPH - was very fortunate to be able to share the work as part of their Brown Bag series), and R code with input files for several examples including an errors review version, a single-year-of-age version, and a stochastic version, is all available in the associated GitHub repository. PFD-Based Migration Data Reviewer A Shiny interface to view the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's PFD-based migration data. Here are the methods for development of the data itself. Many thanks to colleagues Eric Sandberg and David Howell for development and production of the data. Here is an interface to compare PFD- and ACS-based in-migration by age data, and here are slides and notes for the talk (November 2018, at MPIDR - I was so fortunate to visit and share information about Alaskan migration) that I prepared the interfaces for. Alaska 2017 Population Possibilities Reviewer Related information and R code are available here (March 2017, updated January 2019). And here is an additional copy of the interface. Alaska 2025: An Employment-Based Population and Housing Projection Interface Related R code and information about the methodology are available here (December 2015, updated July 2016). Applied Demography Toolbox An active collection of applied demography computer programs, scripts, spreadsheets, databases and texts that I started in January 2011. Research on Regression-Based County Population Estimates for Colorado A work paper with review, testing, and R code for ratio-correlation-based population estimates that I put together in September 2010 (updated December 2012), while working for the State of Colorado. Iterative Proportional Fitting Information, Code, and Links Instruction, code, and links for iterative proportional fitting that I've collected or worked on for the Alaska Department of Labor since 2007. Alaska Population Estimates and Projections Reports and Presentations The Alaska Population Overview A series of annual reports that I worked on for several years with terrific colleagues at the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development. Special thanks to Greg Williams, PhD, who led the development of the publication over many years. Will Administrative Data Save Government Surveys? A View From Alaska Slides with comments for a presentation about use of administrative data in government statistics. Given at the 2018 Joint Statistical Meetings. Alaska Population Projections: 2017 to 2045 This June 2018 report I worked on with Eric Sandberg and Liz Brooks has projections by age and sex for all Alaska boroughs and census areas, and for the Alaska Native population. The report also includes an appendix with a look back at our projections from 2007. Feel free to send me a message if you have any questions. Alaska Population Projections: 2015 to 2045 This April 2016 report I worked on with Eric Sandberg and Liz Brooks has projections by age and sex for all Alaska boroughs and census areas, and for the Alaska Native population. The report also includes an appendix with a special scenario repeating 1985 to 2015 net-migration. Alaska's total population has been flat for the last two years. The state currently (May 2016 writing) has the highest statewide unemployment rate in the country (6.6 percent - surprised me that that's the highest), and many economic and fiscal challenges (many related to oil prices and oil production), and I'd characterize expert opinion about Alaska's economy and employment over the next few years as mostly pessimistic with a lot of uncertainty. Here are five broad things we know from the statewide population projections: [1] Unless we see higher than historical average net-migration gains (~0 going back 25 years) for total population over the next ten years, Alaska's 20 to 64-year-old population (typical working ages) will likely remain flat or drop through 2025. [2] Alaska's 65+ population will increase dramatically through 2025, but its share of total population is unlikely to pass projected national levels. [3] With aging of the population and bigger increases in deaths than births (and related: Alaska's total fertility rate is at its lowest since the 1970s), Alaska's population growth will likely be slower in the future. [4] Alaska net-migration has bounced around 0 for a long time, but small shifts in the long-term level of net-migration (different states have different long-term net-migration levels) would have big effects on total population. [5] If Alaska saw a repeat of its historically-worst economic downturn years (1986 to 1988) for net-migration, the state would lose more people than it did in 1986 to 1988, but would bottom out above 700,000. Feel free to send me a message if you have any questions. Population Pyramids Show Alaska's Dramatic 100-Year Transformation Content of a 2012 blog post I authored about Alaska's historical population. An Expert-Based Stochastic Population Forecast for Alaska An expert-based stochastic population forecast for Alaska from September 2010, with a link to the related R code. If you would like to use, share or reproduce any information or ideas from the linked file, be sure to cite the source. Here's a link to the slides from presentation of the work to the Federal-State Cooperative for Population Projections, in April of 2012. Alaska Long-Term Projections Meeting Slides Slides from a 2008 meeting with other Alaska Department of Labor researchers on uncertainty in population projections, and Alaska's future labor force. Alaska Population Projections Methods Presentation Slides (extended) from a presentation given to the Federal-State Cooperative for Population Projections in April of 2008. Alaska Native Population Projections Presentation Slides from a presentation given to attendees of the "Alaska Native Population Changes" Workshop, hosted by the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, and the Alaska Native Epidemiology Center, in April of 2008. Alaska Population Projections: 2007-2030 A big forecasting project that I worked on with Greg Williams in 2006 and 2007. I think it's interesting because it provides some conditional probabilistic statements. Probabilistic Population Forecasting Presentation Slides (annotated version) from Spring 2007 describing the outline for an R script that I wrote, which evolved (a lot) to become the script for the official Alaska population projections. Please don't mistake any obscurity in it for much technical depth. Please do send me a message if you find the presentation useful. Alaska Economic Trends Articles Alaskans 65 and Older A article on Alaskans age 65 or older that was published in the June 2019 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related information is available here. Importance of the 2020 Census A brief article on the importance of the decennial U.S. Census. Co-authored with Liz Brooks, and published in the September 2018 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related information is available here. Population Projections: 2017 to 2045 An article on Alaska's 2017 to 2045 population projections that was published in the August 2018 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Population Estimates for 2017 An article on Alaska's 2017 population estimates that was published in the March 2018 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Alaska's Changing Age Structure A brief article on Alaska's age structure that was published in the June 2017 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Alaska's Military Veterans An article on military veterans in Alaska that was published in the June 2016 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Alaskans with Disabilities An article on Alaskans with disabilities that was published in the May 2016 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Movers to Alaska An article on recent movers to Alaska that was published in the August 2015 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Population: New Estimates An article on Alaska population trends that was published in the April 2015 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Juneau Neighborhoods An article on Juneau Neighborhoods. Co-authored with Eric Sandberg, and published in the February 2015 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Alaskans in Their Twenties An article on Alaskan twentysomethings that was published in the September 2014 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Alaskans Who Live Alone An article on one-person households that was published in the June 2014 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. The Copper River Basin An article on Alaska's Copper River Basin. Co-authored with Eric Sandberg, and published in the May 2014 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Alaska's Asian and Pacific Islander Populations An article on Alaska's Asian and Pacific Islander populations. Co-authored with Eric Sandberg, and published in the February 2014 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Anchorage Neighborhoods An article on Anchorage Neighborhoods. Co-authored with Eric Sandberg, and published in the September 2013 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. The Alaska Native Population An article on the Alaska Native population. Co-authored with Eric Sandberg, and published in the April 2013 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Home-Grown Workers A brief article comparing Alaska workers who lived here as kids to those who didn't. Co-authored with David Howell, and published in the March 2013 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Alaska's Hispanic Population A brief article on Alaska's Hispanic population that was published in the February 2013 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. The Shift to an Older Alaska An article on aging that was published in the August 2012 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Alaska's Highly Migratory Population An article on migration in Alaska. Co-authored with David Howell and Eric Sandberg, and published in the April 2012 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. Related data are available here. Population Projections, 2007-2030: A Look at Alaska's Future A projections article that was published in the October 2007 issue of Alaska Economic Trends, the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development's monthly journal. The full projections report is available here. Eddie Hunsinger